Collaborative market analysis for home energy retrofit programs in four southern Ontario municipalities

The Clean Air Partnership (CAP), a charitable environmental organization that supports Ontario communities in advancing initiatives to combat climate change, will partner with Dufferin County, the City of London, the City of Barrie and the Town of Huntsville on a feasibility study to develop locally-tailored home energy retrofit financing programs. This initiative builds on CAP’s previous program design work through its Collaboration for Home Energy Efficiency Retrofits in Ontario (CHEERIO) and LIC Financing Toolkit. This multi-municipal collaboration has produced a pilot program design that can be tailored to municipalities across the province. Municipalities with limited administrative capacity can also adopt the pilot’s third-party delivery model administered by CAP with the Association of Municipalities of Ontario and the Heating, Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Institute (HRAI). The objectives of this study are twofold. First, it will perform market analyses that will be used to tailor the pilot program design to each of the four municipalities in the cohort in preparation for subsequent CEF capital program applications. Second, it will develop a Market Analysis and Uptake Scenario Guide to be used as a capacity-building tool to support other municipalities seeking to advance their own market analyses. The study will undertake the following to achieve these objectives: 1. Lightspark Energy, the consultant, will collect municipal data for a market analysis for each municipality. This will include forecasting participation, developing home archetypes and cost-optimal retrofit bundles, modelling potential energy and carbon savings, and informing a marketing and outreach strategy. 2. CAP will lead discussions with municipal leads (individually and collectively) and stakeholders (renovators and realtors) to discuss the market analyses and gather input to refine potential uptake scenarios. 3. CAP will lead municipal discussions to evaluate program financing options and draft a final study report featuring tailored program designs for each municipality. The anticipated participation and benefits will be refined as part of the study, but it is expected that at least 400 homes across the four municipalities would participate over three years, resulting in energy savings of approximately 18,328 GJ per year and greenhouse gas emissions reductions of 924 tCO2e per year. Community benefits would likely include utility bill savings; increased home value, climate resilience and occupant comfort; reduced pressure on energy infrastructure; less vulnerability to energy and carbon cost increases; and local economic stimulus and job creation. This initiative is supported by the following: Dufferin County’s Climate Action Plan (2021), which highlights this study as a priority action for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the residential sector, accounting for 22% of community emissions; London’s Climate Emergency Action Plan (2014), which lists a home retrofit program as a priority action; Barrie’s Climate Emergency Declaration (2019), which supports the movement towards carbon neutrality by 2050; and Huntsville’s Sustainability Plan (2010), which sets out the goal to reduce energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions by promoting sustainable, innovative and community-based energy initiatives. Innovative aspects: The cohort study approach to tailoring an existing pilot program design will reduce the burden on municipal staff, increase engagement and buy-in across municipalities, and gain efficiencies of scale and consistency in approach. Moreover, this collective approach will help build a critical mass of stakeholders working together to advance these programs. Replicability: CAP will document the entire study process to develop a Market Analysis and Uptake Scenario Guide that will support other municipalities seeking to replicate this study. The guide will be shared widely through CAP’s various networks and related initiatives. (Project description from original funding application)